One week until the election and I see a lot of anxiety out there. Thanks to media, the spiritual atmosphere, the issues, or whatever else it might be, there are a lot more people emotionally involved in the outcome of this election than I can ever remember seeing. It's for good reason too. The last 16 years have seen the visions of the Republican Party (Bush administration) and the Democratic Party (Obama admin) each have 8 year reigns and for the most part both have failed pretty spectacularly. For every accomplishment each achieved there were multiple failures, and neither have been able to bring the country any closer to unity as a people. In fact, quite the opposite.
Now our country is as politicized and polarized as it has ever been. We have two real options in choosing our leadership (sorry third-party voters, you might as well throw your vote in the toilet). With Hillary Clinton we know exactly what we are getting. Her administration would be a cross between the first Clinton admin and the current Obama admin. We have 40 years of her career to pull from. There is not a single mystery in regards to how she will approach things. She is experienced, knowledgeable, and mired in scandal. In other words, she's a typical career politician! However, many feel safe in that. Many also agree with her and where she stands. I understand that.
On the other hand, we have a maelstrom of malcontent in the man Donald Trump. On his worst days he has petitioned to the worst parts of the human condition, and on his best he has offered a new way forward apart from the politically influenced sub-leadership we have experienced since Ronald Reagan left office. Bush 1 and 2, Clinton, and Obama all had their gifts and talents, but only in certain areas did they exhibit leadership. All too often they each acquiesced to compromise that was, more often than not, more harmful than helpful. They were all out of touch with the common man (although Clinton 1 and Bush 2 came close at times). They all knew how to govern, however, and we have no such inclination about Trump. We only know that he is brash, arrogant, egotistical, and yet somehow seems to understand America more than any leader in decades.
Neither candidate can lay any claim to moral superiority. They both have failed in that sense far too often in the past. Neither does one appear to be very ethical. Both Clinton and Trump have used the glitches of the system to further their own careers with seemingly little respect or care for how those choices affected others.
So who will win?
Clinton is clearly the safer choice. At least in terms of leadership. Even those who strongly agree with her know what to expect. Of course, is that a good thing?
Trump is a loose cannon. We have no idea what to expect. Will he lead well? Is his combustibility simply an act? We have no idea for sure.
I have paid more attention to this election than any in my lifetime. I studied politics in college as a political science major. I'm here to tell you that it sure looks like Clinton should have this race wrapped up.
But I'm also confident she is going to lose, for the following reasons:
1) Americans want change. They are fed up with politics the way they have been played, and they are fed up with Washington asking for their trust and delivering few good things in return. They are fed up with the lack of good jobs and the spiraling outlook of the country' future. They are about ready to blow the whole thing up. Trump gives them that opportunity.
2) Americans don't care about Trump's past as much as the media wants you to believe. We've had a President in the office who was just as bad, if not worse, morally than Trump in Clinton 1. Americans long got past the idea that morality was necessary for good leadership.
3) Every aspect of our country's current state points to a Trump victory. Statistically and historically speaking all the signs are in Trumps favor, save for the polls (in which Clinton only has a 1.7 average lead at the moment and dwindling fast). The economy is stagnant, the stock market is falling, parties RARELY win 3 elections in a row, the people are uninspired and unhappy about the direction of the country, and trust in politicians is at an all-time low.
4) Trump, for all his faults and indiscretions, has NEVER been tried or convicted for anything criminally illegal. Clinton is STILL under investigation by the FBI.
5) Those voting for Trump have a massive enthusiasm gap over Clinton voters, who feel they are simply voting to keep Trump out.
6) When it all comes down to it, I am convinced that when people are in that voters booth, more will take the chance for something new than for more of the same. Americans are quick to forgive moral indiscretions, but they are also very leery of political scandal. They might not trust Trump, but they really don't trust Hillary. They may really not like Trump, but they don't like Hillary much better. When forced to choose, my bets are on more people opting for the hope of the unknown versus the hopelessness of the current trajectory.
7) Voters aren't stupid (despite what much of the media and elite believe) and with Clinton under investigation currently they know that this will carry over into a presidency. This means a Clinton presidency will BEGIN as one full of legal scuffles and potential indictment. Even if she is cleared there is no idea how long it will take to get there. No one wants their leader to have such a cloud of uncertainty hanging over them.
8) Literally thousands of people are rejoining the voting ranks because of this election. People who haven't voted in decades or EVER. Since these people didn't vote for the first Clinton or for Obama, odds are they aren't signing up to vote for another Clinton. These people, because they are not officially "likely voters" are being left out of the current polling, which means that the polls are potentially much further off than in usual years (in which they tend to be off from 1-5 points). Seeing as this is most likely in Trump's favor, that would be more than enough to usher him into the White House.
9) Just a gut feeling. I'm leaving all my faith and spiritual reasons out of this because I want to keep this post slightly more objective. But subjectively I just feel it. I play games online with thousands of people around the country, and it is rare I find someone excited about Hillary, but MANY are actively promoting Trump. Reports all over are about how few Hillary signs are seen around the country (Trump's are few compared to normal elections too, but they are out there more). The enthusiasm gap is just too large, and Hillary has far too many other factors to overcome. Trump is more charismatic despite his personality flaws. He is more interesting, and he offers something new. That will lead him to victory in one week.
Of course, I could be completely wrong. Certainly the "experts" would disagree with me. And that's fine. But for all of those out there wondering just what might happen, I'm telling you to expect to be surprised. Not all is as it might seem.
